Mobile:

CDMA2000 1xEV-DO: Opportunities, Challenges & Competitive Strategies (report)

Datacomm Research
Market Study June 2003

Is 3G wireless too late, expensive, and unwanted? The latest CDMA technology is proving the critics wrong. CDMA2000 'data only' has attracted its first one million subscribers and they are spending considerably more than other users. Based on in-depth interviews with operators, manufacturers, and others, this report is a must read for anyone involved in wireless planning or strategy.

The latest CDMA technology demonstrates 3G wireless is here, enables operators to launch money-making multimedia services, and meets end users’ expectations. That is one of the conclusions of the new 77-page report, CDMA2000 1xEV-DO: Opportunities, Challenges & Competitive Strategies, released today by Datacomm Research Company.

"Our research shows the combination of CDMA2000 1x and EV-DO consistently delivers a 3G wireless experience with services such as music and video on demand," said Ira Brodsky, President of Datacomm Research and principal author of the report. "But operators must bite the bullet and deploy EV-DO now to fully capitalize on its time-to-market, cost, and performance advantages," he added.

CDMA2000 1xEV-DO: Opportunities, Challenges & Competitive Strategies is based on more than 15 in-depth interviews with operators and manufacturers. The report includes sections on Pervasive Broadband Services, Market Segmentation, and Deployment Considerations. Datacomm Research has been tracking and analyzing CDMA since its inception in 1989.

CDMA2000 1xEV-DO: Opportunities, Challenges & Competitive Strategies is the latest in Datacomm Research's CompetitiveEdge™ family of reports and is available for $995.00 (PDF version). The price includes one hour of follow-on consultation. The report may be ordered online at the firm’s secure website www.datacommresearch.com. Visa, MasterCard, and American Express accepted. Orders may also be faxed to (314) 514-9793, phoned to (314) 514-9750, or mailed to Datacomm Research Company, 14318 Millbriar Circle, Chesterfield, Missouri 63017.

Additional conclusions found in CDMA2000 1xEV-DO: Opportunities, Challenge & Competitive Strategies:

EV-DO frees operators from the false dilemma of charging data users for the equivalent voice resources consumed. Using dedicated bandwidth, operators can develop mobile data as an independent business.
EV-DO can compete against cable modem and DSL services—particularly in unserved and underserved locations. However, handset users are the primary market for EV-DO services.

CDMA2000 1xEV-DO has significant advantages over W-CDMA, the dominant UMTS technology. EV-DO requires less clear spectrum to deploy, currently delivers higher average and peak throughput, and is less expensive.

Some wireless LAN proponents believe Wi-Fi hotspot services will eliminate the need for 3G wireless. However, the business case for Wi-Fi hotspots as a substitute for 3G is flawed. Wi-Fi hotspots are best-suited to serving notebook PC users in select airport, hotel, and restaurant locations.

The success of CDMA ‘data only’ (EV-DO) will reduce future demand for CDMA ‘data-voice’ (EV-DV). The latter will mainly be relegated to operators with insufficient spectrum.

Table of Contents

Published Q3, 2003. 77 pages. 8 tables & figures.

1          Executive Summary
     1.1       Opportunities
     1.2       Threats
     1.3       Business Models & Strategies for Success
     1.4       Key Conclusions
2          Overview
3          Pervasive Broadband
     3.1       Cable modem/DSL extension service
     3.2       Geographically targeted extranet service
     3.3       Fixed broadband service for unserved/underserved locations
     3.4       Streaming audio services
     3.5       Short video service (SVS)
     3.6       Multimedia messaging service (MMS)
     3.7       Mobile games service
     3.8       Location-based services (LBS)
     3.9       Mobile commerce services
     3.10     Ubiquitous virtual private network service
4          Alternative Approaches
     4.1       CDMA2000 1xEV-DO
     4.2       Wi-Fi Hotspots
     4.3       GPRS (or CDMA2000 1x) plus Wi-Fi Hotspots
     4.4       Wire-based services
     4.5       Fixed wireless services
     4.6       CDMA2000 1xEV-DV
     4.7       W-CDMA
     4.8       EDGE
     4.9       Other wireless solutions
          4.9.1    Flarion Technologies’ Flash-OFDM
          4.9.2    TD-SCDMA
          4.9.3    Navini Networks’ MCSB
          4.9.4    IP Wireless’ TD-CDMA
5          Market Segmentation
     5.1       Regional considerations
     5.2       Customer type
     5.3       Application segment
     5.4        Device type
6          Obstacles
     6.1       Spectrum availability
     6.2       Infrastructure investment
     6.3       Manufacturing licenses
     6.4       Uncertain market
     6.5       Complex marketing
7          Deployment Considerations
     7.1       ROI for CDMA2000 1xEV-DO: Korean example
     7.2       Deployment options and considerations
          7.2.1    Cellular/PCS overlay, nationwide, every sector/cell
          7.2.2    Cellular/PCS overlay, nationwide, select cells
          7.2.3    Cellular/PCS overlay, nationwide, plus Wi-Fi hotspots
          7.2.4    Green-field CDMA2000 1xEV-DO network, nationwide
          7.2.5    Green-field CDMA2000 1xEV-DO network, select locations
8          Product Opportunities
9          Service Opportunities
10        Infrastructure Vendors
     10.1     Airvana
     10.2     Ericsson
     10.3     Hitachi
     10.4     Lucent
     10.5     Motorola
     10.6     Nortel Networks
     10.7     Qualcomm (chipsets)
     10.8     Samsung
     10.9     SOLiD Technologies
     10.10   Tektronix (test equipment)
     10.11   Zte Corp.
11        Device Vendors
     11.1     AirPrime
     11.2     Appeal
     11.3     Curitel Communications
     11.4     GTRAN Wireless
     11.5     LG Electronics
     11.6     Motorola
     11.7     Samsung
     11.8     SK Teletech
12         Service Providers
     12.1     Alaska Communications Systems
     12.2     Asia Pacific Broadband Wireless Communications
     12.3     Brasil Telecom
     12.4     KDDI
     12.5     KT Freetel
     12.6     Monet Mobile Networks
     12.7     Nextwave Telecom
     12.8     Pelephone Communications
     12.9     PT Wireless Indonesia (WIN)
     12.10   SK Telecom
     12.11   Sprint PCS
     12.12   UbiquiTel
     12.13   Verizon Wireless
     12.14   Vesper

Figures

Figure 1, EV-DO subscriber forecast, by region, 2003 - 2007

Tables

Table 1, Factors driving and inhibiting market for CDMA2000 1xEV-DO

Table 2, Comparison of EV-DO device types

Table 3, Cost model for Wi-Fi, 802.11a, and Bluetooth hotspot services

Table 4, Business Comparison: CDMA2000 1xEV-DO versus Wi-Fi

Table 5, Cost comparison: CDMA 1xEV-DO vs. generic Wi-Fi hotspots

Table 6, Cost comparison: CDMA 1xEV-DO vs. payphone-based Wi-Fi hotspots

Table 7, Competitive comparison: CDMA2000 1xEV-DO, W-CDMA, and EDGE

For full details, please email michellen@cmsinfo.com

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