2005 Global Mobile Communications Moving Towards 3G

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3G:

2005 Global Mobile Communications Moving Towards 3G

Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd.
Management Report March 2005

Annual report covering: GSM, CDMA, 3G (analyses, technical issues, standards, market data), fixed-mobile substitution, Bluetooth, MVNO. Also contains industry analyses, issues and strategies, government policies, spectrum developments. Detailed chapters on: The future of voice Technology information Global overview and analysis Trends and Developments Marketing and Business Strategies User statistics Revenues, ARPU and forecasts

Executive Summary High growth rates in the mobile industry have been maintained globally until the present time, but there are strong indications that the annual growth rate is slowing quite markedly. It has now stabilised just below 20%. Most of this growth is in developing countries, with Africa leading the charge. There are now 1.5 billion mobile users worldwide, growing to 2 billion by 2007. This report provides global subscriber statistics, together with regional and country breakdowns, and forecasts of future growth. On average, call charges are dropping by 15%-20% per annum. While several countries are still seeing high growth in new mobile subscribers, their overall revenue are also flattening, because of the drop in call charges – as well as the fact that new subscribers are, in general, low-usage customers. As would be expected, markets with strong competition have experienced a considerable drop in mobile call charges. The others have retained declining but relatively high ARPUs. The low-priced countries have seen a levelling out of the mobile charges as they approach fixed call charges. In the USA and Scandinavia mobile substitution has resulted in at least 50% of its voice traffic migrating to mobile. In Europe, 10%-15% of households now use mobile phones only. These countries are stimulating further growth by developing mobile value-added services. Mobile data, content and new triple play models are discussed in a separate report: 2005 Global Mobile Data and Content Markets. By 2005 the mobile market was worth a staggering $800billion! fG based services have been predominantly voice-driven, with a few enhanced services (SMS), and are not widely accepted for data applications. 3G is seen by some as being the answer to this, and some companies have paid enormous sums of money to obtain spectrum to allow them to capture this market. Other possible uses are in WLL developments and in the domestic market. However, the future of 3G also will be mainly driven by voice. This report discusses the evolution of 3G; analyses the problems of implementation; describes the difference between 3G and the existing 2½G applications; and provides possible strategies for new players. The most visible of all companies in the 3G market is Hutchison, with its 3 service. It has launched this service in several countries with optimistic subscriber targets, but to date these have not been met. In its attempts to win subscribers, Hutchison has attacked the high end of the market, taking share from the existing 2G and 2½G operators. This is already leading to price retaliation by the existing operators, leading to all-out price wars.

Number of pages - 129

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