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Market Data:
Hot Telecom
Market Briefing October 2003
Following a slowdown in 2002 caused by the economic crisis at home and the deteriorating climate in global telecoms, Poland's telecommunications market appears gradually to be recovering. Rapid growth has been reported in the mobile telephony and data transmission sectors, and there is also a chance of revival on the fixed-line telephony market.
The telecommunications market in Poland offers a strategic overview of the situation in all areas of the Polish telecoms market on the eve of the country's accession to the European Union. Each chapter of the report provides information on the size of a given market segment, profiles of the largest players, a selection of key statistical data and an analysis of the growth prospects for that segment in the immediate future.
The report also includes the results of research conducted by PMR among the management personnel of the 100 largest Polish telecoms businesses. Questions they were asked included an assessment of the situation on the market, an evaluation of action taken by the government and URTiP (the Office for the Regulation of Telecommunications and Post), and their opinions of the prospects for development of selected services and telecommunications technologies on the Polish market, including Wi-Fi, Voice over IP for international connections and PLC Internet access.
The report is intended for management personnel and marketing departments of firms active on the Polish telecommunications market and those looking to enter this market, as well as consulting companies, government institutions and analytical organizations.
Table of Contents
Executive summary
An overview of the Polish telecommunications market
Key developments on the market to mid-2003
The size of the Polish telecommunications market
The Polish telecommunications market in comparison with the markets of Hungary and the Czech Republic
Main capital groups
Regulatory issues
The current situation on the market
Slowdown in fixed-line telephony
Slow pace of market liberalisation
Positive phenomena
The future of the market
Summary
The fixed-line telephony market
Introduction
Sub-sectors
Local telephony
The domestic long-distance market
International market
Key players on the fixed-line telephony market
The future of the Polish fixed-line sector
What happens after EU accession?
Extra: VoIP in Poland
The mobile telephony market
Introduction
The players on the mobile telephony market
The future of the mobile telephony sector
The data transmission and Internet services market
Introduction
Key players
Sub-sectors of the market
Data transmission
The Internet services market
Extra: Wi-Fi use and development prospects in Poland
Results of a survey of the 100 largest Polish telecommunications companies
Introduction
Methodological note
Results of the survey
Opinions on the current situation on the market and on its immediate future
Barriers and stimuli to the development of the Polish telecoms market
Assessment of the policy pursued by the authorities
Predictions concerning the future development of the Polish telecom market
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List of Tables
1. The Polish telecommunications market in comparison with the markets of Hungary and the Czech Republic, 2002
2. Key data on the fixed-line sector in Poland
3. TP SA: key data, 1999-H1 2003
4. Telefonia Dialog: key data, 1999-H1 2003
5. Netia: key data, 1999-H1 2003
6. TeleNet: key data, 2002-H1 2003
7. Key data on the mobile telephony sector in Poland
8. PTK Centertel: key data
9. Polkomtel: key data
10. Polska Telefonia Cyfrowa: key data
11. Key data on the data transmission and Internet access services sector in 2002
12. Home broadband Internet access in Poland in mid-2003, in thousands
13. Forecast penetration rates for fixed-line and mobile telephony in Poland in 2010
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List of Graphs
1. The size of the Polish telecommunications market in 2002 according to various sources, PLN bn
2. The size of the Polish telecommunications market in 2001 and in 2002, in PLN bn
3. The TP SA group
4. The Polska Telefonia Cyfrowa/Elektrim group
5. The Polkomtel group
6. The Tel-Energo group
7. Fixed-line penetration rate in Poland, 1995-H1 2003, in %
8. Fixed-line telephony in Poland: market shares by numbers of subscriber, H1 2003
9. TP SA's DLD market share (Q1 2001-Q2 2003), by traffic
10. The domestic long-distance market in Poland at the end of 2002: market share by traffic
11. Prices of international calls to the EU and USA: alternative operators' advantages over TP SA at the end of Q1 2003, in %
12. TP SA shareholders, end July 2003
13. Netia shareholders, end July 2003
14. Forecast of fixed-line penetration in Poland, 2003-2005 (data for year end)
15. Mobile penetration in Poland, 1997-H1 2003
16. Quarterly value of the mobile market in Poland, Q1 2002-Q4 2003 (forecasts), PLN billion
17. Net increments of new subscribers by Polish operators, 1997-H1 2003, in thousands
18. Average ARPU of Polish mobile operators, 1999-H1 2003, in PLN
19. Mobile operators' net profits in H1 2003, PLN million
20. Structure of the Polish mobile telephony market by number of subscribers, end of H1 2003
21. Structure of the Polish mobile telephony market by revenue, in H1 2003, PLN billion
22. PTK Centertel shareholders, mid-2003
23. Polkomtel shareholders, mid-2003
24. Shareholders of Polska Telefonia Cyfrowa, mid-2003
25. Forecast mobile penetration in Poland during the 2003-2006 period (data for year end)
26. Structure of the Polish data transmission market, H1 2003, by revenues
27. Structure of the Polish line rental market, H1 2003, by revenues
28. Structure of the Polish market of dial-up Internet connections, H1 2003, by traffic generated
29. Number of Internet users in Poland in the population aged 15+ according to various sources, Q1 2003
30. Internet access penetration in Poland in the population aged 15+, 1998-2003
31. Internet use in Polish companies, by number of employees, autumn 2002
32. Position in the company occupied by the survey respondents
33. Generally speaking, how was 2002 for your company?
34. How do you think 2003 will turn out for your company in comparison with 2002?
35. Greatest barriers to the development of the Polish telecommunications market at present
36. What, in your opinion, could exert the most positive influence on the Polish telecoms market within the next two years?
37. How do you assess the policy of Leszek Miller's government in the field of telecommunications?
38. Generally speaking, how do you assess the policy pursued by URTiP to date?
39. Respondents' reasons for their negative opinions of the activity of URTiP
40. During the next two years, what are, in your opinion, the perspectives for growth on the Polish telecommunications market
41. How will the integration of Poland with the EU affect competition in your sector of the Polish telecoms market?
42. How quickly do you expect the subscriber base of all alternative fixed-line operators to increase during the next two years?
43. When, in your opinion, will the first commercial UMTS network be launched in Poland?
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