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Mobile:
ARC Group
Market Study December 2003
Appraising the mobile video opportunity ,this report provides strategic analysis and forecasts of the mobile video market and examines both the commercial and technological challenges and drivers behind a range of services and applications, including video download, video streaming, video messaging and video telephony.
Assessment of new revenue opportunities: See how operators, content owners and aggregators, network equipment vendors, handset OEMs and ODMs, chipset and software vendors can all benefit from the introduction of mobile video services.
5 year forecasts and strategic outlook: Plan for the future with detailed, reliable forecasts, including segmentation by application and regional analysis.
Extensive technology overview: Review all the standard and proprietary technologies that enable mobile video services.
Value chain analysis: Discover how the value chain is emerging with detailed analysis and case studies of key players.
Strategic appraisal of key enablers and market drivers: Understand what is possible with today ’s networks and devices and what will be possible in the future in areas such as video handset architectures and chipset and software platform support for mobile video.
Detailed review of 'Media Delivery Platform': Assess this new concept, including standard platforms defined by the 3GPP, WMF and ISMA, and proprietary platforms from vendors such as Microsoft, RealNetworks, Thin Multimedia and OplayO.
In-depth analysis of applications, services and solutions: Evaluate opportunities and challenges for consumers and business services.
Mobile video services, which have been confined to fields tests and limited user trials for the past 4 years, are finally becoming a commercial reality. Over 40 cellular operators worldwide have launched mobile video services, enabling their customers to enjoy diverse content such as movies, music, news, and sports; send full motion video messages to each other ;and conduct real-time, live video telephony sessions.
Technology advances in standard-based compression such as MPEG-4 and H.264, and proprietary methods such as Windows Media and Real Media, along with advancement in high bandwidth network deployment including GPRS,EDGE,CDMA 1x and W-CDMA, enable operators to provide rich video content to users on the move.
The proliferation of colour screens, cameras, advanced media processors and increased memory storage into various segments of the mobile handset market enables support for such services on the client side, and provides new opportunities for software, system and solution vendors to create exciting new video-based services and business models.
The ARC Group report Mobile Video provides a strategic analysis and forecast of the mobile video services market, including identification of the main drivers, analysis of the mobile video value chain and key players, extensive over view and roadmap of technology developments, numerous case studies, and a recommended strategy for industry players.
The report includes detailed forecasts for mobile video users and revenues, including regional segmentation and segmentation by application, and an in-depth analysis of the key enablers for mobile video, trends and future outlook. The report covers various services of video delivery to cellular handsets, including video download, video streaming, video messaging and video telephony, and analyzes the possible applications and solutions for consumers and enterprises which can be built based on these services.
Mobile Video is the industry’s first extensive market analysis of this emerging field, and provides a global view and strategic insight of the technology and business issues that will shape this market in the years ahead.
Who Should Read This Report?
Network Operators
Understand the market dynamics of the mobile video market
Assess best revenue and business model opportunities
Handset and Component Manufacturers
Evaluate the market size with detailed forecasts to 2008
Analyse the impact of mobile video on handset demand and design
Content and Service Providers
Identify main drivers, key players and partnership opportunities
Define implementation strategies, limitations and challenges
Consultants, Analysts and Venture Capitalists Support decisions and recommendations to clients.
List of Contents
1 -Executive Summary 1-1
The Mobile Video Market 1-1
Market Trends and Issues 1-1
Market Segmentation 1-2
Market Segmentation Forecasts Overview 1-3
Regional Analysis 1-4
Market Enablers 1-5
Video and Audio Compression 1-5
Media Delivery Platforms 1-6
Networks 1-8
Handsets 1-8
Content 1-9
Market Analysis 1-10
The Mobile Video Value Chain 1-10
Revenue and Pricing Models 1-11
End-user Segmentation 1-12
Roadmap and Future Outlook 1-13
2 -Technical Overview 2-1
Basics of Video Compression 2-1
Basics of Audio Compression 2-3
Video Compression Standards 2-5
MPEG-1 2-5
MPEG-2 2-6
MPEG-4 2-6
H.261 2-7
H.263 2-8
H.264 2-9
Audio Compression Standards 2-10
MP3 2-10
AAC 2-11
High-Efficiency AAC 2-12
GSM-AMR 2-13
EVRC 2-13
MPEG-4 CELP 2-14
Image Compression Standards 2-14
GIF 2-14
JPEG 2-14
PNG 2-15
Other Media Representation Standards 2-16
SVG 2-16
MIDI 2-16
X-HTML 2-17
Protocol and File Format Standards 2-18
IETF 2-18
ISO/MPEG 2-19
ITU 2-19
W3C 2-19
Creating a Media Delivery Platform 2-19
Standard Media Delivery Platforms 2-21
WMF 2-21
3GPP 2-23
3GPP2 2-24
ISMA 2-24
IMTC 2-24
OMA 2-25
Proprietary Media Delivery Platforms 2-26
Microsoft 2-26
Real 2-27
Nancy 2-27
Thin 2-27
OplayO 2-28
helloMobile 2-28
QuickTime 2-28
Operator-defined Media Delivery Platforms 2-28
iii.
3 -Market Overview 3-1Introduction 3-1
Background 3-2
Market Trends and Issues 3-3
Market Segmentation 3-4
Market Segmentation Forecasts Overview 3-4
Video Entertainment 3-6
Download 3-6
Video Download Forecasts 3-8
Streaming 3-9
Comparison:Download vs.Streaming 3-11
Circuit-Switched Streaming 3-12
Surveillance/Monitoring Applications 3-13
Video Streaming Forecasts 3-13
Video Communication 3-15
Video Messaging 3-15
Video Messaging Forecasts 3-16
Video Telephony 3-18
Video Telephony Forecasts 3-19
Regional Analysis 3-20
Asia/Pacific 3-21
Korea 3-22
Japan 3-23
China 3-25
Rest of Asia Pacific 3-27
Europe 3-29
North America 3-31
South America 3-33
Africa &Middle East 3-34
4 -Market Enablers 4-1
Networks 4-1
CDPD,TDMA and PDC 4-4
GSM and HSCSD 4-4
GPRS 4-5
EDGE 4-6
W-CDMA 4-6
CDMA and CDMA 2000 4-7
TD-SCDMA 4-8
Handsets 4-8
Colour Screens 4-9
Cameras 4-10
Memory 4-12
Media Processing 4-12
The Co-Processor Approach 4-13
The Application Processor Approach 4-13
The Multimedia Baseband Approach 4-14
Software Platforms 4-16
SymbianOS,Nokia Series 60 and UIQ 4-17
Microsoft Windows CE.Net and Microsoft SmartPhone (Windows Mobile)4-18
PalmOS 4-19
Embedded Linux 4-19
Java 4-19
Qualcomm BREW and LaunchPad 4-19
TTPCom AJAR 4-20
Openwave Phone Suite 4-20
Content 4-20
Content Distribution Chain 4-21
Content Protection and DRM 4-22
Content Types 4-24
News 4-24
Sports 4-24
Music 4-25
Movie 4-26
Comedy 4-27
Adult 4-27
iv.
5 -Market Drivers,Challenges and Opportunities 5-1The Mobile Video Value Chain 5-2
Content 5-2
Server and Software Vendors 5-3
Video Servers 5-3
Content Creation 5-4
Client Software 5-4
RealNetworks 5-5
PacketVideo 5-7
Emblaze Systems 5-9
Bamboo MediaCasting 5-11
Philips MP4Net 5-12
Mobixell Networks 5-13
Hantro 5-14
Sasken 5-14
Nextreaming 5-15
PACE Soft Silicon 5-15
RADVISION 5-15
Dilithium Networks 5-16
BBC Technology 5-16
Others 5-16
System Integrators 5-17
Operators 5-17
Handset Vendors 5-18
The Japanese Handset Market 5-20
NTT DoCoMo Handsets 5-20
J-Phone Handsets 5-23
KDDI Handsets 5-24
The Global Handset Market (Excluding Japan)5-25
Nokia 5-25
Motorola 5-27
Sony Ericsson 5-28
Siemens 5-28
Samsung 5-29
LGE 5-30
NEC 5-31
Sharp 5-31
Others 5-32
Chipset Vendors 5-33
Texas Instruments (TI)5-33
Motorola 5-33
Qualcomm 5-34
Intel 5-36
ST 5-36
Hitachi 5-37
Philips 5-37
Ericsson Mobile Platforms 5-37
Emblaze Semiconductor 5-38
AlphaMosaic 5-38
TransChip 5-38
Others 5-38
Revenue and Pricing models 5-38
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts 5-41
Branding 5-43
Content Branding 5-43
Service Branding 5-43
End-user Segmentation 5-44
Mobile Video Roadmap and Future Outlook 5-46
Strategies for Success 5-47
Media Delivery Platform 5-47
Interoperability 5-48
User Devices 5-48
Content 5-49
Managing User Expectations 5-49
Pricing Models 5-50
v.
6 -Operator Case Studies 6-1NTT DoCoMo Japan 6-1
3 UK 6-2
WIND Italy 6-5
CellCom Israel 6-6
Orange UK 6-7
vi.
1 -Executive Summary 1-1Figure 1.1:Worldwide Mobile Video Users by Application,2003 –2008 1-3
Figure 1.2:Mobile Video Users by Region,2003 –2008 1-5
Figure 1.3:3GPP Packet-Switched Streaming Framework 1-7
Figure 1.4:Network Bandwidth Evolution 1-8
Figure 1.5:The Mobile Video Value Chain 1-11
Figure 1.6:Worldwide Revenue ($m)by Application,2003 –2008 1-12
Figure 1.7:Worldwide Video Users by Segmentation Category,2003 –2008 1-12
Figure 1.8:Mobile Video Roadmap (excluding Japan and Korea)1-13
2 -Technical Overview 2-1
Figure 2.1:Block Diagram of a Typical Video Encoder 2-3
Figure 2.2:H.264 Tree-Structured Macro-Block Partitioning 2-10
Figure 2.3:MPEG Audio Encoder Block Diagram 2-11
Figure 2.4:WML/HTML/XHTML Evolution 2-18
Figure 2.5:WMF Video Download and Playback Framework 2-22
Figure 2.6:WMF RTFD 1.2 Codec and Protocols Diagram 2-23
Figure 2.7:3GPP Packet-Switched Streaming Framework 2-24
3 -Market Overview 3-1
Figure 3.1:Worldwide Mobile Video Users by Application,2003 –2008 3-5
Figure 3.2:Video Download and Playback 3-7
Figure 3.3:Worldwide Mobile Video Download Users,2003 –2008 3-9
Figure 3.4:On-Demand Video Streaming 3-10
Figure 3.5:Live Video Streaming 3-10
Figure 3.6:Worldwide Mobile Video Streaming Users,2003 –2008 3-14
Figure 3.7:Video Messaging 3-15
Figure 3.8:Worldwide Mobile Video Messaging Users,2003 –2008 3-17
Figure 3.9:Video Telephony 3-18
Figure 3.10:Worldwide Mobile Video Telephony Users,2003 –2008 3-19
Figure 3.11:Mobile Video Users by Region,2003 –2008 3-20
Figure 3.12:Asia Pacific Mobile Video Users (m)by Application,2003 -2008 3-22
Figure 3.13:Japan Mobile Video Users (m)by Application,2003 -2008 3-25
Figure 3.14:China Mobile Video Users (m)by Application,2003 –2008 3-26
Figure 3.15:Rest of Asia Pacific Mobile Video Users (m)by Application,2003 -2008 3-28
Figure 3.16:Europe Mobile Video Users (m)by Application,2003 –2008 3-31
Figure 3.17:North America Mobile Video Users (m)by Application,2003 –2008 3-33
Figure 3.18:South America Video Users (m)by Application,2003 –2008 3-34
Figure 3.19:Africa and Middle East Mobile Video Users (m)by Application,2003 –2008 3-35
4 -Market Enablers 4-1
Figure 4.1:Comparison of Fixed-line and Cellular Data Rates 4-2
Figure 4.2:Network Bandwidth Evolution 4-3
Figure 4.3:Block Diagram of a Video-Supporting Handset 4-9
Figure 4.4:The Nokia 7700 Media Device 4-10
Figure 4.5:Mobile Video System Partitioning Using The Video Co-Processor Approach 4-13
Figure 4.6:Mobile Video System Partitioning Using The Application Processor Approach 4-14
Figure 4.7:Combined Application Processor/Baseband Approach 4-15
Figure 4.8:The Texas Instruments OMAP 732 Processor 4-16
Figure 4.9:The Qualcomm LaunchPad Suite Video Applications 4-20
Figure 4.10:The Samsung Matrix SPH-N270 Mobile Handset 4-27
5 -Market Drivers,Challenges and Opportunities 5-1
Figure 5.1:The Mobile Video Value Chain 5-2
Figure 5.2:The PacketVideo Mobilemedia System Architecture 5-7
Figure 5.3:The Emblaze Systems EMPlatform Architecture 5-10
Figure 5.4:The Bamboo BlueFountain Architecture 5-11
Figure 5.5:The Philips Platform4 MSD Architecture 5-13
Figure 5.6:The RADIVISION 3G-324M Toolkit Architecture 5-16
Figure 5.7:NTT DoCoMo 505i Handsets 5-21
Figure 5.8:NTT DoCoMo 505iS Handsets 5-21
Figure 5.9:NTT DoCoMo T2101V,N2051,F2051 and P2102V FOMA Handsets 5-22
Figure 5.10:NTT DoCoMo N2701,F2102V and N2102V FOMA Handsets 5-23
Figure 5.11:J-Phone J-SA51 and J-SH52 Movie Sha-Mail Handsets 5-23
Figure 5.12:J-Phone V801SA Handset 5-24
Figure 5.13:KDDI Movie Mail Handsets 5-24
Figure 5.14:KDDI A1034T and A1401K Handsets 5-25
vii
List of Figures.
Figure 5.15:Nokia 7650 5-26Figure 5.16:Nokia 3650 5-26
Figure 5.17:Motorola A835 5-27
Figure 5.18:Sony Ericsson P800 5-28
Figure 5.19:Siemens SX1 and U10 5-29
Figure 5.20:Samsung SCH-V310 and SGH-D700 5-30
Figure 5.21:LGE KV-1300 5-30
Figure 5.22:NEC e808Y 5-31
Figure 5.23:Sharp GX-20 5-32
Figure 5.24:AlphaCell M5 5-32
Figure 5.25:Motorola i.300 Chipset Platform 5-33
Figure 5.26:Qualcomm MSM 6250 Baseband Chip 5-35
Figure 5.27:ST Nomadik Application Processor Chip 5-37
Figure 5.28:Worldwide Traffic (Millions of events)by Application,2003 –2008 5-41
Figure 5.29:Worldwide Revenue ($m)by Application,2003 –2008 5-42
Figure 5.30:Worldwide Video Users by Segmentation Category,2003 –2008 5-45
Figure 5.31:Mobile Video Roadmap (excluding Japan and Korea)5-47
viii.
List of Tables1 -Executive Summary 1-1
Table 1.1:Mobile Video Market Segmentation 1-3
Table 1.2:Worldwide Mobile Video Users by Application,2003 –2008 1-3
Table 1.3:Typical Video Parameters of Common Video Applications 1-6
Table 1.4:Typical Audio Parameters of Common Video Applications 1-6
Table 1.5:Standard vs.Proprietary Media Delivery Platforms 1-7
Table 1.6:Mobile Video Drivers and Challenges 1-10
Table 1.7:Visual Entertainment Charging Models 1-11
2 -Technical Overview 2-1
Table 2.1:Typical Video Parameters of Common Video Applications 2-2
Table 2.2:Typical Audio Parameters of Common Video Applications 2-4
Table 2.3:Compression of CD-quality audio using various audio codecs 2-12
Table 2.4:Comparison of GIF and PNG Image Formats 2-15
Table 2.5:Standard vs.Proprietary Media Delivery Platforms 2-21
Table 2.6:Vendor Participation in IMTC Interoperability Testing 2-25
Table 2.7:Proprietary Media Delivery Platforms Target Markets 2-26
3 -Market Overview 3-1
Table 3.1:Mobile Video Market Segmentation 3-4
Table 3.2:Worldwide Mobile Video Users by Application,2003 –2008 3-5
Table 3.3:Worldwide Mobile Video Download Users,2003 –2008 3-9
Table 3.4:Comparison of Video Streaming and Video Download 3-12
Table 3.5:Worldwide Mobile Video Streaming Users,2003 –2008 3-15
Table 3.6:Worldwide Mobile Video Messaging Users,2003 –2008 3-18
Table 3.7:Worldwide Mobile Video Telephony Users,2003 –2008 3-20
Table 3.8:Mobile Video Users by Region,2003 –2008 3-21
Table 3.9:Asia Pacific Mobile Video Users (m)by Application,2003 –2008 3-22
Table 3.10:Japan Mobile Video Users (m)by Application,2003 -2008 3-25
Table 3.11:China Mobile Video Users (m)by Application,2003 –2008 3-26
Table 3.12:Rest of Asia Pacific Mobile Video Users (m)by Application,2003 -2008 3-28
Table 3.13:Europe Mobile Video Users (m)by Application,2003 -2008 3-31
Table 3.14:North America Mobile Video Users (m)by Application,2003 -2008 3-33
Table 3.15:South America Video Users (m)by Application,2003 -2008 3-34
Table 3.16:Africa and Middle East Mobile Video Users (m)by Application,2003 -2008 3-35
4 -Market Enablers 4-1
Table 4.1:Typical Bandwidth Requirements for Mobile Video Clips 4-2
Table 4.2:Segmentation of Mobile Image Sensor Vendors 4-11
Table 4.3:Platforms Used by Current 2.5G Smart Phones 4-17
5 -Market Drivers,Challenges and Opportunities 5-1
Table 5.1:Mobile Video Drivers and Challenges 5-2
Table 5.2:Media Delivery Platforms Supported by Major Server Vendors 5-4
Table 5.3:Customers of PacketVideo's Mobile Media Products 5-8
Table 5.4:Customers of Hantro's Mobile Media Products 5-14
Table 5.5:Customers of Sasken's Mobile Media Products 5-15
Table 5.6:Other Vendors of Mobile Video Servers and Software 5-17
Table 5.7:Selected Video-enabled Handsets –Global Markets (Excluding Japan)5-19
Table 5.8:Selected Video-enabled Handsets –Japanese Market 5-20
Table 5.9:Visual Entertainment Charging Models 5-39
Table 5.10:Worldwide Traffic (Millions of events)by Application,2003 –2008 5-42
Table 5.11:Worldwide Revenue ($m)by Application,2003 –2008 5-42
Table 5.12:Content Brands Licensed for Mobile Video Service Deployment 5-43
Table 5.13:Worldwide Video Users by Segmentation Category,2003 –2008 5-45
6 -Operator Case Studies 5-1
Table 6.1:Hutchinson 3 UK Tariffs for October-December 2003 6-5
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