Mobile:

Mobile Games: Subscription & Download

Juniper Research
Market Study  February 2005

Single-user PDF - GBP 1250.00  


http://www.telecomsinfo.com/bulletin_graphics/games.bmp

For many years only a very small minority of the world's 1bn+ mobile phone users played ‘paid-for’ games on their handsets. During 2003 and 2004 however this began to change. Juniper Research’s estimate for the mobile games market in 2004 was just above S$3bn, with a sharp rise forecast for the next five years. We believe the market will approach $18.5bn by 2009. While the majority (just under two-thirds) of this revenue will be derived from downloadable games, a sizeable amount will be derived from either game rentals (to try the game for a limited period to determine whether it is worth purchasing), or increasingly, from subscriptions to online multiplayer games networks.


Table of Contents

Glossary of Terms


Executive Summary


Introduction

Projections


Sector Focus

The Opportunity

What Mobile Brings To Game Playing


Convenience


Ideal Target Market


Mobile Penetration Rates


Technology


Types of Mobile Games Services


How Much is Mobile Games Worth?

The Hurdles


1. Technology


Introduction


2G (Second Generation)

SMS


Mobile Origination (MO) SMS


Mobile Terminated (MT) SMS


Premium Rate SMS (PRSMS)


The SMS Value Chain


MMS


How MMS Works


When MMS Does Not Work


MMS Services


MMS Information Services


MMS Entertainment Services


MMS Customisation Services


Other MMS Services


WAP

2.5G

2.5G and Mobile Video


The i-mode Alternative


i-mode structure


Japanese i-mode & Wireless Internet Growth


European i-mode Handsets.Mobile Games: Subscription & Download ~ Second Edition

2.75G – EDGE


3G


Languages, Platforms and Technologies

Java and J2ME


BREW

Other Relevant Technologies

MP3


MP4


MIDI

2. The Opportunity for Mobile Entertainment


Introduction


What is Wireless Entertainment?


The Growth of the Mobile Market

Global Cellular Subscriber Market


Top 10 Mobile Operators by Subscriber Base


World’s Largest Countries, Population and Mobile Users


Asia Pacific Cellular Market Growth Forecasts


European Cellular Market Growth Forecasts


US Cellular Market Growth Forecasts


North America


South America


Rest of World Cellular Market Growth Forecasts


Global Cellular Subscriber Forecasts


Regional Forecasts


2.5G & 3G Subscribers

The Market for Mobile Entertainment


3. Mobile Games Development


Introduction


Mobile Publishers

Square Enix


Namco


Hudson


Sega Mobile


In-Fusio


Jamdat Mobile


Gameloft


Mforma


THQ Wireless


Digital Bridges

The Publisher/Developer Relationship

Iomo


Morpheme

The Demographics of Games


The Future of Games

Beyond the Hardcore


Multiplayer Games: the First Steps


Handsets: N-Gage


Platforms: Kayak Interactive


Tournament Play: Atlas Mobile


3G Multiplayer: Badlands


MMORPGs

4. The Games Market 71


Introduction

Orange France/In-Fusio Study

The Market for Downloadable Mobile Games

Mobile Games Download Traffic


Mobile Games Download Revenues.Mobile Games: Subscription & Download ~ Second Edition


Mobile Game Download ARPU

The Market for Subscription-Based Mobile Games

Mobile Game Rentals/Subscriptions


Mobile Game Rental/Subscription Revenues

Total Mobile Games Download Revenues


5. Hurdles & Regulations 87


Hurdles

Handset Memory Constraints


N-Gage


Samsung


Pricing


Network Technologies

Games Regulation

PEGI Games Ratings


The UK Model


Independent Mobile Classification Body (IMCB)


ICSTIS


Internet Watch Foundation (IWF)


Outside the UK


International Self-Regulation


Pan-European Legislation


Directive 95/46/EC: Processing Personal Data and the Protection of Privacy


The E-Commerce Sector Data Protection Directive (2002/58/EC)


The Distance Selling Directive (97/7/EC)

6. Billing 99


Introduction


Mobile Billing Market Drivers

Security, Privacy and Anonymity


Case Study: bango.net


Qpass


Cross Network Support for Billing


Who Should Build Portals?


Third party Access to Portals


Bi-Directional Billing


Profitability

Billing Types

Interactive Voice Response (IVR) Based Billing


Standard SMS


Standard Browsing


Premium Rate SMS (PR SMS)


Premium browsing


Premium Rate Multimedia Messaging (PRMMS)


Stored Value Accounts


Via the SIM


The Next Generation of Billing Mechanisms


Heading for Billing Overload?


The Single Billing Dashboard

Security

Public Key Infrastructure (PKI)


Digital Signatures

Billing Laws and Regulations

Existing PRS Rules and Regulations


Other Relevant UK Laws


E-money Directive

Who to Turn to For help

The Mobile Payment Forum


The Mobile Payment Services Association (MPSA)


NACHA.Mobile Games: Subscription & Download ~ Second Edition

List of Forecasts

All regional forecasts cover five regions: North America, South America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Rest of World 2004-


2009

Cellular Market Growth

Asia Pacific Cellular Market Growth Forecasts


European Cellular Market Growth Forecasts


North American Cellular Market Growth Forecasts


South American Cellular Market Growth Forecasts


Rest of World Cellular Market Growth Forecasts

Mobile Entertainment Market

Total Mobile Entertainment Revenues Split By Region ($m)


Total Revenues from Mobile Games ($m). Regional Forecast


Global Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m)


Global 2.5G/3G Subscriber Forecasts (m)

Downloadable Games

% Mobile Phone Users Who Download Games. Regional Forecast


Mobile Phone Users Who Download ‘Simple’ Games (m). Regional Forecast


Average Number of Game Downloads by Games Mobile Users per Year. Regional Forecast


Total Number of Game Downloads by Games Mobile Users per Year (m). Regional Forecast


Average Price ($) Paid per Game Download. Regional Forecast


Total Revenues from Mobile Games Downloads ($m). Regional Forecast


ARPU for Mobile Game Downloads ($). Regional Forecast

Subscriptions

% Mobile Phone Users Who Subscribe to Games. Regional Forecast


Mobile Phone Users Who Rent/Subscribe to Games (m). Regional Forecast


Mobile Game Rentals/Subscriptions per User per Annum. Regional Forecast


Mobile Game Rentals/Subscriptions. Regional Forecast


Average Price ($) Paid per Mobile Game Rental/Subscription. Regional Forecast


Total Revenues from Mobile Game Rentals/Subscriptions ($m). Regional Forecast


ARPU for Mobile Game Rentals/Subscriptions ($). Regional Forecast.Mobile Games: Subscription & Download ~ Second Edition

List of Figures

All regional forecasts cover five regions: North America, South America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Rest of World 2004-


2009


Figure 1: The SMS Value Chain


Figure 2: T-Mobile’s Video News Application Launched in July 2003


Figure 3: Selection of Picture Phones (Orange SPV OE100, Nokia 7250i, Sagem MYX6)


Figure 4: Examples of WAP Phones: Sharp GX10i & Panasonic GD87


Figure 5: UK WAP Page Impressions, 2002-2004 (m)


Figure 6: i-mode Structure


Figure 7: Japanese Wireless Internet Growth, 1999-2004


Figure 8: Japanese i-mode and Wireless Internet Growth, 1999-2004


Figure 9: i-mode Users & Cellular Subscribers, September 2004


Figure 10: European i-mode Handsets: Mitsubishi M341i and NEC n31i


Figure 11: EDGE Handsets: Nokia 6600 & Motorola T725


Figure 12: Global 3G Subscriber Base, June 2004


Figure 13: MP3 Phones: Nokia 6230, Motorola V300, SonyEricsson P900


Figure 14: Nokia 3510 Mobile Phone


Figure 15: Cellular Subscribers, By Region, 1999-2003 (m)


Figure 16: Top 10 Mobile Operators by Subscriber Base, September 2004


Figure 17: World’s Largest Countries, Population and Mobile Users, 2003 (m)


Figure 18: Asia Pacific Cellular Market Growth Forecasts, 2004-2009


Figure 19: European Cellular Market Growth Forecasts, 2004-2009


Figure 20: North American Cellular Market Growth Forecasts, 2004-2009


Figure 21: South American Cellular Market Growth Forecasts, 2004-2009


Figure 22: Rest of World Cellular Market Growth Forecasts, 2004-2009


Figure 23: Global Cellular Subscriber Forecasts, 2004-2009 (m)


Figure 24: Global 2.5G/3G Subscriber Forecasts, 2004-2009 (m)


Figure 25: Total Mobile Entertainment Revenues Split By Region, 2004-2009 ($m)


Figure 26: Dragon Quest Screen Shot, 900i Series Handset


Figure 27: JAMDAT Bowling Screenshot


Figure 28: Gameloft Quarterly Revenues, 2002-2004 (€ m)


Figure 29: Kayak Live Surrogate Architecture


Figure 30: Badlands Screenshot


Figure 31: EverQuest Screenshots


Figure 32: Pocket Kingdom Screenshots


Figure 33: Mobile Phone Users Who Download Games (m). Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Figure 34: Average Number of Game Downloads by Games Mobile Users per Year. Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Figure 35: Total Number of Game Downloads by Games Mobile Users per Year (m). Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Figure 36: Total Revenues from Mobile Games Downloads ($m). Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Figure 37: ARPU for Mobile Game Downloads ($). Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Figure 38: Mobile Phone Users Rent/Subscribe to Games (m). Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Figure 39: Mobile Game Rentals/Subscriptions per User per Annum. Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Figure 40: Mobile Game Rentals/Subscriptions. Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Figure 41: Total Revenues from Mobile Game Rentals/Subscriptions ($m). Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Figure 42: ARPU for Mobile Game Rentals/Subscriptions ($). Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Figure 43: Total Revenues from Mobile Games ($m). Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Figure 44: Nokia N-Gage Handset


Figure 45: Nokia N-Gage QD Handset


Figure 46: Samsung SCH-V450


Figure 47: Samsung SCH-V450


Figure 48: The Bango Interface


Figure 49: WAP Browse and Buy vs TXT Response


Figure 50: Leveraging the Banking Infrastructure


Figure 51: Main Components of Public Key Infrastructure.Mobile Games: Subscription & Download ~ Second Edition

List of Tables

All regional forecasts cover five regions: North America, South America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Rest of World 2004-


2009


Table ES1: The Issues for the Mobile Games Sector


Table 1: Japanese i-mode and Wireless Internet Growth, 1999-2004


Table 2: i-mode Users & Cellular Subscribers, September 2004


Table 3: Global 3G Subscriber Base, June 2004


Table 4: Cellular Subscribers, By Region, 1999-2003 (m)


Table 5: Top 10 Mobile Operators by Subscriber Base, September 2004


Table 6: World’s Largest Countries, Population and Mobile Users, 2003 (m)


Table 7: Asia Pacific Cellular Market Growth Forecasts, 2004-2009


Table 8: European Cellular Market Growth Forecasts, 2004-2009


Table 9: North American Cellular Market Growth Forecasts, 2004-2009


Table 10: South American Cellular Market Growth Forecasts, 2004-2009


Table 11: Rest of World Cellular Market Growth Forecasts, 2004-2009


Table 12: Global Cellular Subscriber Forecasts, 2004-2009 (m)


Table 13: Global 2.5G/3G Subscriber Forecasts, 2004-2009 (m)


Table 14: Total Mobile Entertainment Revenues Split By Region, 2004-2009 ($m)


Table 15: Selected Publisher Revenues, 2002-3


Table 16: Mforma Publisher/Developer Business Models


Table 17: % Mobile Phone Users Who Download Games. Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Table 18: Mobile Phone Users Who Download ‘Simple’ Games (m). Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Table 19: Average Number of Game Downloads by Games Mobile Users per Year. Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Table 20: Total Number of Game Downloads by Games Mobile Users per Year (m). Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Table 21: Average Price ($) Paid per Game Download. Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Table 22: Total Revenues from Mobile Games Downloads ($m). Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Table 23: ARPU for Mobile Game Downloads ($). Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Table 24: % Mobile Phone Users Who Subscribe to Games. Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Table 25: Mobile Phone Users Who Rent/Subscribe to Games (m). Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Table 26: Mobile Game Rentals/Subscriptions per User per Annum. Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Table 27: Mobile Game Rentals/Subscriptions. Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Table 28: Average Price ($) Paid per Mobile Game Rental/Subscription. Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Table 29: Total Revenues from Mobile Game Rentals/Subscriptions ($m). Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Table 30: ARPU for Mobile Game Rentals/Subscriptions ($). Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Table 31: Total Revenues from Mobile Games ($m). Regional Forecast 2004-2009


Table 32: Bango Number Prices (per annum)


Table 33: The Three Principles of PR SMS

Table 34: How Digital Signatures Allow Security Services to be Applied to Billing Information.





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